skip to main content
US FlagAn official website of the United States government
dot gov icon
Official websites use .gov
A .gov website belongs to an official government organization in the United States.
https lock icon
Secure .gov websites use HTTPS
A lock ( lock ) or https:// means you've safely connected to the .gov website. Share sensitive information only on official, secure websites.


Search for: All records

Creators/Authors contains: "Myrskylä, Mikko"

Note: When clicking on a Digital Object Identifier (DOI) number, you will be taken to an external site maintained by the publisher. Some full text articles may not yet be available without a charge during the embargo (administrative interval).
What is a DOI Number?

Some links on this page may take you to non-federal websites. Their policies may differ from this site.

  1. The Brazilian period fertility rate (PTFR) dropped from six to 1.8 between 1950 and 2010. Due to the shifts in the timing of fertility, the PTFR might be providing a misleading picture of fertility levels. Moreover, the national average hides important educational differences, as in 2010, the PTFR was 2.3 among the lower educated, whereas it had fallen to 1.5 among the higher educated. The consequences of these changes for the cohort total fertility rate (CTFR) – a measure that is free from tempo distortions – and for the educational differences in completed fertility have not been previously studied. Due to the scarcity of time series of fertility rates, the application of CTFR forecasting methods outside of high-income countries (HICs) has been rare, and has been largely limited to population-level analysis. We use four Brazilian censuses to forecast the CTFR for the total population and by educational level using rates reconstructed with indirect techniques. The results of four forecasting methods indicate that the CTFR is likely to decline to 2.1 for the 1980 cohort, and to 1.9 for the 1984 cohort. Educational differences in the CTFR are likely to remain stark – at between 0.7 and 0.9 depending on the cohort and the method – and to be larger than they are in HICs with comparable CTFRs. We show how the CTFR can be forecasted, including by educational level in settings with limited data. Finally, we call for more research on the educational differences in completed fertility in low- and middle-income countries. 
    more » « less